Peramalan untuk Perencanaan Produksi Stop Valve Tipe Tx277s Menggunakan Metode Peramalan Deret Waktu (Time Series) di PT. XYZ

Authors

  • Sudiman Sudiman Universitas Pamulang

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.32493/jitmi.v3i1.y2020.p7-14

Keywords:

Peramalan permintaan, Time Series, MAD

Abstract

Untuk menghadapi kondisi persaingan industri manufaktur  yang   ketat perusahaan dituntut agar bisa memenuhi permintaan konsumen dengan cepat dan tepat tanpa mengesampingkan efisiensi. Peramalan akan suatu permintaan pasar sangatlah penting, karena sebagai acuan perencanaan produksi sebelum order diterima dari konsumen. Time series adalah suatu metode peramalan yang cukup banyak digunakan dalam peramalan permintaan. Model peramalan rata-rata bergerak menggunakan MA(4) didapat nilai sebesar 1361,72. Model peramalan rata-rata bergerak menggunakan  MA(5) didapat nilai MAD sebesar 1440. Model peramalan pemulusan eksponensial dengan nilai ES (α = 0,8) didapat nilai MAD yaitu 1158,3. Model peramalan pemulusan eksponensial dengan nilai ES (α = 0,95) didapat nilai MAD yaitu 1248,75. Dari model peramalan yang digunakan, nilai MAD yang paling rendah adalah model ramalan pemulusan eksponensial menggunakan ES (α = 0,8) yaitu 1158,3. Berdasarkan model peramalan pemulusan eksponensial dengan ES (α = 0,8), maka dapat diperoleh nilai peramalan untuk bulan Mei 2020 yaitu 1158,3.

 

Kata Kunci: Peramalan permintaan, Time Series, MAD

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Published

2020-03-31

Issue

Vol. 3 No. 1 (2020): JITMI

Section

Articles

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