ACCURACY ANALYSIS OF FIVE BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION MODELSWITH PROFITABILITY RATIO ON PT. ASURANSI HARTA AMAN PRATAMA, Tbk.

Dyah Puspitasari Sunaryo Putri

Abstract


The aim of this study is to analyze the accuracy of the five bankruptcy prediction models (Altman-Z, Ohlson, Grover, Zmijewski, and Springate) that have been done previously by the authors namely on PT. AsuransiHartaAmanPratama, Tbk. using the profitability ratio. The methodology of this study is qualitative with a quantitative approach using financial statement data that has been published on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) for the period 2012 - 2016 as a prediction year and 2017 - 2018 as a year after prediction. The results of the analysis show that in 2017 -2018 the ratio of underwriting has decreased with a ratio below the average of the previous 5 years, the burden of claims has increased significantly, and the commission expense has continuously decreased from 48% in 2012 to 2% in 2018. While ROA, ROE and RNP reached the minus point during 2017-2018. From the 5 bankruptcy prediction models that have been done before and using the profitability ratio analysis, it can be concluded that the most appropriate Almant-Z model.

 

Keyword: Bankruptcy Prediction Model, Profitability Ratio


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References


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