The Influence of Inflation, BI Rate and Exchange Rates on Stock Index Prices in The Infrastructure Sector (IDXINFRA)

Authors

  • Rizqi Dana Prakoso Politeknik Negeri Jakarta
  • Annisa Alifa Ramadhani Politeknik Negeri Jakarta

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.32493/eaj.v9i3.y2026.p183-196

Keywords:

Inflation, BI Rate, Exchange Rate, Infrastructure Sector Stock Price Index (IDXINFRA), Capital Market

Abstract

This study examines the impact of macroeconomic variables, specifically inflation, the BI Rate, and the exchange rate, on the stock prices of infrastructure companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) for the 2019-2024 period. Employing an associative quantitative approach, this research utilizes panel data analysis consisting of 17 purposively selected infrastructure firms, with data processed via EViews 9. Based on the Chow, Hausman, and Lagrange Multiplier tests, the Random Effect Model (REM) was determined as the most appropriate regression model. The partial T-test results indicate that inflation has no significant effect on stock prices. Conversely, the BI Rate exerts a significant positive effect, while the exchange rate demonstrates a significant negative effect. Simultaneously, the F-test confirms that inflation, the BI Rate, and the exchange rate collectively influence the stock prices of the sampled infrastructure firms. Lastly, the Adjusted R-squared value of 0.057018 indicates that approximately 5.7% of the variance in infrastructure stock prices can be explained by these three independent variables, while the remaining variance is accounted for by other factors outside the model.

References

Adam, A. M., & Tweneboah, G. (2008). Macroeconomic Factors and Stock Market Movement: Evidence from Ghana. MPRA Paper No. 11161. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.0810.3335

Al-Awadhi, A. M., Alsaifi, K., Al-Awadhi, A., & Alhammadi, S. (2020). Death and Contagious Infectious Diseases: Impact of the COVID-19 Virus on Stock Market Returns. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 27, 100326. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbef.2020.100326

Annisa, P., Sirat, A. H., & Hadady, H. H. (2023). Dampak Inflasi, BI Rate, Dan Kurs Rupiah Terhadap Performa Saham Indeks Syariah Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) Di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) Periode 2018-2022. Jurnal Mutiara Manajemen, 8(2), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.51544/jmm.v8i2.4660

Baker, S. R., Bloom, N., Davis, S. J., Kost, K., Sammon, M., & Viratyosin, T. (2020). The Unprecedented Stock Market Impact of COVID-19. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series, No. 27203. https://doi.org/10.3386/w27203

Balaka. M. Y. (2022). Metodologi Penelitian Kuantitatif. Widina Bhakti Persada.

Baltagi, B. H. (2021). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data. Springer Nature Switzerland AG. http://www.springer.com/series/10099

Fadilla, A. S., & Purnamasari, A. (2021). Pengaruh Inflasi Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Indonesia. Ekonomica Sharia: Jurnal Pemikiran dan Pengembangan Ekonomi Syariah, 7(1), 17–27. www.bps.go.id,

Fitri, C. K. N. (2024). Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Suku Bunga (Bi Rate), Nilai Tukar (Kurs) Dan Inflasi Terhadap Harga Saham Sektor Perbankan Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Pada Tahun 2019-2023. Politeknik Negeri Jakarta.

Gozgor, G., Lau, M. C. K., Lu, Z., & Yan, C. (2022). Macroeconomic announcements and stock market volatility: Evidence from global financial markets. International Review of Financial Analysis, 81, 102086. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.irfa.2022.102086

Greene, W. H. . (2018). Econometric Analysis. Pearson.

Gujarati, D. N. (2009). Basic Econometric. McGraw-Hill/Irwin.

Hijrianti, I., Fadilah, F. M., Shamurti, J. S., Kustina, L., & Junaedi. (2024). Pengaruh Inflasi, Suku Bunga, dan Nilai Tukar Terhadap IHSG di BEI. Margin : Jurnal Lentera Manajemen Keuangan, 21–31.

Mawaddah, J., Susanto, E., & Amri, A. (2024). Pengaruh Inflasi, Suku Bunga dan Nilai Tukar terhadap Return Saham yang Terdaftar di IDX-MES BUMN 17 Periode 2018-2022. Jurnal Simki Economic, 7(2), 478–488. https://jiped.org/index.php/JSE

Sugiyono, P. D. (2020). Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif, Kualitatif, dan R&D. Penerbit Alfabeta.

Sukesti, F., Ghozali, I., & Khaddafi, M. (2021). Determinants of Stock Return: The Role of Macroeconomic and Financial Performance. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 18(1), 135-143. https://doi.org/10.21511/imfi.18(1).2021.12

Utami, T., & Sutiadi, A. (2023). Moderation of The Rupiah Exchange Rate on The Influence of Sharia Stock and Inflation on Economic Growth in IDX-MES Companies 17. EAJ (Economics and Accounting Journal), 6(2), 89–97. https://doi.org/10.32493/eaj.v6i2.y2023.p89-97

Widodo, A., & Fadillah, T. S. (2022). Pengaruh Inflasi, Bi Rate Dan Kurs Terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (Ihsg) Periode Tahun 2011 – 2021. Swara MaNajemen (Keuangan Pemasaran, dan Source Daya Manusia), 2(4), 415–425.

Additional Files

Published

2026-09-30