ACCURACY ANALYSIS OF FIVE BANKRUPTCY PREDICTION MODELSWITH PROFITABILITY RATIO ON PT. ASURANSI HARTA AMAN PRATAMA, Tbk.
Abstract
The aim of this study is to analyze the accuracy of the five bankruptcy prediction models (Altman-Z, Ohlson, Grover, Zmijewski, and Springate) that have been done previously by the authors namely on PT. AsuransiHartaAmanPratama, Tbk. using the profitability ratio. The methodology of this study is qualitative with a quantitative approach using financial statement data that has been published on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) for the period 2012 - 2016 as a prediction year and 2017 - 2018 as a year after prediction. The results of the analysis show that in 2017 -2018 the ratio of underwriting has decreased with a ratio below the average of the previous 5 years, the burden of claims has increased significantly, and the commission expense has continuously decreased from 48% in 2012 to 2% in 2018. While ROA, ROE and RNP reached the minus point during 2017-2018. From the 5 bankruptcy prediction models that have been done before and using the profitability ratio analysis, it can be concluded that the most appropriate Almant-Z model.
Keyword: Bankruptcy Prediction Model, Profitability Ratio
References
Amani, Z. A., &Sukmaningrum, P. S. (2019). KinerjaKeuanganPada Perusahaan AsuransiSyariah Di Indonesia Dan Perusahaan AsuransiSyariah Di Malaysia Periode 2013-2015. Jurnal Ekonomi Syariah Teori Dan Terapan, 5(8), 645-663.
Baridwan, Z. (2013). Intermediate Accounting, EdisiKedelapan, CetakanKelima. BPFE. Yogyakarta.
Berggrun, L., Cardona, E., &Lizarzaburu, E. (2020). Firm profitability and expected stock returns: Evidence from Latin America. Research in International Business and Finance, 51, 101119.
El Khoury, R., & Al Beaïno, R. (2014). Classifying manufacturing firms in Lebanon: An application of Altman’s model. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 109, 11-18.
Fatimatuzzahra, F., &Sukmaningrum, P. S. (2019). KinerjaKeuanganPada Perusahaan AsuransiUmumSyariah Dan AsuransiJiwaSyariah Di Indonesia Periode 2014-2016. JurnalEkonomiSyariahTeoridanTerapan, 5(7), 606-622.
Fitriani, D. (2017). Pengaruh Rasio Likuiditas, Rasio Retensi Sendiri, Ukuran Perusahaan, Tingkat Kecukupan Dana Dan Rasio Margin Solvensi Terhadap Kinerja Keuangan Perusahaan Asuransi Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2007-2015 (Doctoral Dissertation, Universitas Muhammadiyah Purwokerto).
Gunadi, G. G., &Kesuma, K. W. (2015). Pengaruh ROA, DER, EPS Terhadap Return Saham Perusahaan Food And Beverage BEI. E-JurnalManajemen, 4(6).
Horne, J. C. V., &Wachowicz, J. M. (2012). Prinsip-prinsip manajemen keuangan. Jakarta: SalembaEmpat.
Houston, B., & Brigham, E. F. (2010). Dasar-dasar manajemen keuangan. Salemba Empat, Jakarta.
Indonesia, I. A. (2009). Pernyataan standar akuntansi keuangan. Jakarta: SalembaEmpat.
IPS Research. (2019). Financial Statements 3Q 2019 of AHAP. https://www.indopremier.com/. accessed on December 15, 2019
Jhongpita, P., Sinthupinyo, S., &Chaiyawat, T. (2012). Using Decision Tree Learner to Classify Solvency Position for Thai Non-life Insurance Companies. arXiv preprint arXiv:1203.3031..
Laitinen, E. K., &Suvas, A. (2016). Financial distress prediction in an international context: Moderating effects of Hofstede’s original cultural dimensions. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 9, 98-118.
Mulyadi, R. (2016). Pengaruh Rasio Profitabilitas Terhadap Penilaian Kinerja Model Z-Score Altman Pada Perusahaan Farmasi di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI). JAK (Jurnal Akuntansi): Kajian Ilmiah Akuntansi, 3(1).
Nurfadila, S. (2015). Analisis Rasio Keuangan dan Risk Based Capital Untuk Menilai Kinerja Keuangan Perusahaan Asuransi (Studi pada PT. Asei Reasuransi Indonesia (Persero) Periode 2011-2013). Jurnal Administrasi Bisnis, 22(1).
Nurlatifah, A. F., & Mardian, S. (2016). Kinerja Keuangan Perusahaan Asuransi Syariah di Indonesia: Surplus On Contribution. Akuntabilitas, 9(1).
Petchsakulwong, P., &Jansakul, N. (2018). Board of directors and profitability ratio of Thai non-life insurers. Kasetsart Journal of Social Sciences, 39(1), 122-128.
Putri, D. P. S. (2018). Comparison Of Bankruptcy Prediction Models Analysis (Altman, Springate, Grover, Ohlson And Zmijewski) On Pt. Asuransi Harta Aman Pratama, Tbk. Eaj (Economics And Accounting Journal), 1(2), 156-165.
R. D. Andrea. (2019).Pengaruh Solvency Margin, Rasio Beban Klaim Dan Risk Based Capital Terhadap Return On Equity (Studi Kasus Pada Perusahaan Sub Sektor Asuransi Yang Terdaftar Di Bei Periode Tahun 2012-2016).Journal Of Communication Education, vol. 13, no. 2.
Rompas, G. P. (2013). Likuiditas Solvabilitas Dan Rentabilitas Terhadap Nilai Perusahaan Bumn Yang Terdaftar Dibursa Efek Indonesia. Jurnal EMBA: Jurnal Riset Ekonomi, Manajemen, Bisnis dan Akuntansi, 1(3).
Ross, S.A., Westerfield, R.W., & Jordan B.D. (2003). Fundamental of Corporate Finance, 6th Edition. New York: McGraw-Hill/Irwin.
Sapari, L. S. J. (2017). Analisis Rasio Keuangan Dan Risk Based Capital Pada Pt. AsuransiBina Dana Arta, Tbk. Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi dan Sosial, VIII, 15-32.
Setyawan, R. A. (2014). AnalisisDampak Debt To Equity Ratio, Return On Equity, Return On Invesment, Firm Size, Dan Net Profit Margin Terhadap Kebijakan Dividen Kas Pada Sektor Keuangan Yang Tercatat di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2009-2013. Semarang: Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Dian Nuswantoro.
Sugiono, A. (2009). Manajemen Keuangan untuk Praktisi Keuangan. Jakarta: Grasindo.
Syafri Harahap, S. (2008). Analisa Kritis atas Laporan Keuangan. Jakarta. PT. Raja Grafindo Persada.
Widarjo, W., & Setiawan, D. (2009). Pengaruh rasio keuangan terhadap kondisi financial distress perusahaan otomotif. Jurnal bisnis dan akuntansi, 11(2), 107-119.
Widiati, P. K., & Aisyah, E. N. (2013). Analisis Rasio Likuiditas, Rasio Solvabilitas, Dan Underwriting Ratio Untuk Mengukur Kinerja Keuangan Pt Mandiri Axa General Insurance Di Indonesia Pasca Ojk (Otoritas Jasa Keuangan). Iqtishoduna, 9(2), 185-191.
