Determinant of Output Growth during Pandemic Covid-19 in Six ASEAN Countries: Panel Data Approach between 2020:I and 2021: I
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32493/pekobis.v8i1.P67-80.30340Keywords:
Covid-19, output growth, ASEAN, central bank policy rate, credit default swapAbstract
Covid-19 pandemic is blamed to be the one which steal one country’s generation because of its severe impacts in economic growth. The study investigates the determinants of output growth during Covid-19 pandemic in six ASEAN countries e.i. Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Viet Nam over the 2020:I - 2021:I period. This study utilises secondary data with panel regression pooled least square (common effect) estimation technique to answer whether the independent variables e.i. central bank policy rate (cbpr), total positive case of Covid-19 (covid), and credit default swap (cds) have significant impact on those six ASEAN countries.We find that cbpr, covid, and cds impact significantly (critical value 95%) on output growth in the six Asian countries. However, cbpr and cds still become puzzle which have a positive relationship with output growth, that might be normal tot the crisis situation. We recommend to include innovation as one prominent factor boosting the growth.
References
Bank Indonesia. (2021). Statistik Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia Edisi Juni 2021. www.bi.go.id
Cantú, C., Cavallino, P., De Fiore, F., & Yetman, J. (2021). A Global Database on Central Banks’ Monetary Responses to COVID-19. Monetary and Economic Department, 1–23. https://www.bis.org/publ/work934.pdf
Carroll, C. D., & Kimball, M. S. (1996). On the Concavity of Consumption Function. Journal of Mathematical Economics, 106(4), 981–992. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmateco.2023.102829
Fornaro, L., & Wolf, M. (2020). Covid-19 Coronavirus and Macroeconomic Policy. Working Papers 1168, Barcelona School of Economics, 1–8. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3560337
Gali, J. (2008). Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle. Princeton University Press.
Gujarati, D. N. (2004). Basic Econometrics. McGraw-Hill Companies.
International Labour Organization. (2021). ILO Monitor : COVID-19 and the World of Work. Eighth Edition (Updated Estimates and Analysis) (Issue October). https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/---dcomm/documents/briefingnote/wcms_824092.pdf
International Monetary Fund. (2020). World Economic Outlook Update: A crisis like no other, an uncertain recovery. International Monetary Fund. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020
Jumino, J., & Mulyanto, E. (2021). Analisa Keunggulan Potensi Ekonomi Regional Tangerang Selatan. Pekobis: Jurnal Pendidikan, Ekonomi, Dan Bisnis, 5(1), 32. https://doi.org/10.32493/pekobis.v5i1.p32-40.9478
Kose, A. M., & Sugawara, N. (2020). Understanding the Depth of the 2020 Global Recession in 5 Charts. World Bank Blogs. https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/understanding-depth-2020-global-recession-5-charts
Martin, A., Markhvida, M., Hallegatte, S., & Walsh, B. (2020). Socio-Economic Impacts of COVID-19 on Household Consumption and Poverty. Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, 4, 453–479.
Mian, A., Rao, K., & Sufi, A. (2013). Household balance sheets, consumption, and the economic slump. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 128(4), 1687–1726. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjt020
Nasikh, M. (2016). Belajar dari Amerika dalam Mempromosikan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi (Economic Growth) Melalui Inovasi (Innovation) dan Persaingan (Competition). EKOBIS Jurnal Pendidikan, Ekonomi Dan Bisnis, 2(2), 44–64.
Nier, E., & Olafsson, T. T. (2020). Main Operational Aspects for Macroprudential Policy Relaxation. IMF Policy Discussion Papers, 9, 1–11.
Wooldridge, J. M. (2003). Introductory Econometrics: A Modern Approach. South-Western College Pub.
Worldometer. (2021). Coronavirus Statistics. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/viet-nam/