Pengaruh Inflasi, Suku Bunga dan Nilai Tukar Rupiah terhadap Neraca Pembayaran (Studi Kasus: Negara-negara Tetangga di ASEAN)
Abstract
December 31, 2015 is the beginning of the implementation of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). The impact of the AEC is the creation of a free market for goods and services, and labor in the ASEAN region. This will lead to an international trading system that makes each country will do some transactions. The purpose of this study was to analyze the effect of the relationship between the inflation rates, interest rates and the Rupiah exchange rates on the balance of payments. It is seen by net exports and foreign direct investment. This study only focused to some ASEAN countries such as Indonesia, Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia and Singapore for the period after the global financial crisis that occurred in 2008, which covered the period from January 2009 to December 2015. The method used in this study is a VAR/VECM. The results in this study showed that the difference of interest rates in the country with Indonesia give the effect to differences in net exports value and foreign direct investment. This prompted the government to deliver policies in the Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in order to grow to faced the free trade competition in AEC.
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