THE EFFECT OF THE 2023 CIGARETTE EXCISE POLICY ON GUDANG GARAM’S STOCK MOVEMENT

Abstract

The Directorate General of Customs and Excise (DGCE) under the Ministry of Finance implemented an average 10 percent increase in the Tobacco Excise Tax (CHT), effective at the beginning of 2023. This fiscal measure directly influenced the retail selling prices (RSP) of cigarettes in the domestic market. The purpose of this study is to examine the variation in PT Gudang Garam Tbk’s stock performance before and after the official announcement of the excise tax adjustment on January 1, 2023. Employing a quantitative comparative research design, this study utilizes daily stock price data of PT Gudang Garam Tbk for the periods preceding and following the policy implementation. The analysis applies a paired sample t-test to assess whether a statistically significant difference exists between stock prices before and after the tax policy announcement. The empirical findings reveal that PT Gudang Garam Tbk’s stock price exhibited notable changes subsequent to the excise tax increase. In the immediate aftermath of the announcement, stock prices declined as a result of negative market sentiment, but gradually stabilized over the following period. These results indicate that the excise tax adjustment exerted a measurable influence on the company’s stock price dynamics, implying the necessity for strategic adaptation through cost efficiency and prudent pricing mechanisms to sustain stock value stability.