FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS AND STOCK MARKET VALUATION OF PT ABM INVESTAMA TBK AMID ENERGY COMMODITY TURMOIL

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the resilience of the fundamental performance and stock market valuation of PT ABM Investama Tbk (ABMM) in the midst of energy commodity price volatility for the 2015-2024 period. The method used is quantitative descriptive with fundamental analysis techniques, which process secondary data from the company's annual financial statements and stock prices. The results revealed that ABMM's fundamental performance, as measured through profitability ratios (GPM, OPM, NPM, ROA, ROE, EPS), is highly volatile and strongly correlates with the coal price cycle. On the other hand, stock market valuations, as measured by the ratio of PER and MBR, show a significant discount despite high profitability. At the peak of 2021-2023 performance, the PER ratio was at a very low level (1.56–2.44 times) and the MBR was consistently below 1. These findings indicate that the market does not view the company's profit performance as sustainable, but rather provides a valuation discount due to the perception of risk to the company's dependence on cyclical coal commodities, aggressive dividend policies, and pressures from the global energy transition. The study concludes that in valuing commodity sector stocks, sustainability expectations and long-term prospects play a more crucial role than historical earnings performance alone.