Analisis Perbandingan Metode Fuzzy Time Series Model Singh dan Markov Chain untuk Prediksi Tingkat Penghunian Kamar Hotel Bintang di Yogyakarta

Authors

  • Ihsan Aji Nugroho Pendidikan Matematika, Universitas Negeri Yogyakarta
  • Dhoriva Urwatul Wutsqa Pendidikan Matematika, Universitas Negeri Yogyakarta

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.32493/sm.v7i1.48599

Keywords:

Prediction, Fuzzy Time Series, Singh, Markov Chain, Hotel Room Occupancy

Abstract

Sektor pariwisata mengalami peningkatan tren jumlah wisatawan dan tingkat penghunian kamar hotel setelah pandemi Covid-19. Dibutuhkan metode prediksi yang akurat, guna mendukung pengelolaan pariwisata serta kesiapan dalam menghadapi situasi darurat seperti pandemi Covid-19. Penelitian ini membandingkan akurasi metode Fuzzy Time Series model Singh dan Markov Chain dalam memprediksi tingkat penghunian kamar hotel bintang di Yogyakarta pascapandemi Covid-19. Data sekunder dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) dibagi menjadi 80% data train dan 20% data test, kemudian dianalisis melalui fuzzifikasi, pembentukan Fuzzy Logic Relations (FLR) dan Fuzzy Logic Relations Grup  (FLRG), serta defuzzifikasi dan prediksi dilakukan sesuai tahapan masing-masing model. Model Singh mempertimbangkan pola data historis tiga periode sebelumnya. Model Markov Chain menggunakan probabilitas transisi antar state. Nilai Mean Squared Error (MSE) dan Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) digunakan sebagai hasil evaluasi analisis model. Hasil menunjukkan model Singh lebih akurat dengan MSE 6,42 dan MAPE 5,57% pada train serta MSE 8,57 dan MAPE 4,75% pada test, dibandingkan model Markov Chain yang memiliki MSE 35,64 dan MAPE 14,68% pada data train serta nilai MSE 24,54 dan MAPE 6,11% pada data test. Oleh karena itu, model Singh dipilih untuk peramalan lima periode mendatang. Periode November 2024 memiliki nilai prediksi tingkat penghunian kamar sebesar 53,31 dan seterusnya.

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Vol. 7 No. 1 (2025)

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Published

2025-04-30

How to Cite

Ihsan Aji Nugroho, & Dhoriva Urwatul Wutsqa. (2025). Analisis Perbandingan Metode Fuzzy Time Series Model Singh dan Markov Chain untuk Prediksi Tingkat Penghunian Kamar Hotel Bintang di Yogyakarta. STATMAT: Jurnal Statistika Dan Matematika, 7(1), 16–30. https://doi.org/10.32493/sm.v7i1.48599

Issue

Vol. 7 No. 1 (2025)

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