Permodelan Produksi Kopi Indonesia dengan Menggunakan Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA)

Authors

  • Hutomo Atman Maulana Politeknik Negeri Bengkalis
  • Kasuma Wardany Harahap Universitas Graha Nusantara
  • Adriyansyah Adriyansyah Institut Teknologi Bandung
  • Rofiroh Rofiroh Institut Teknologi Bandung
  • Fuad Zainuddin Institut Teknologi Bandung

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.32493/jsmu.v2i1.2914

Keywords:

Coffee Production, Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average.

Abstract

This research used a method in modelling time series data in the form of seasonal data. The method used in this study is the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). This method is applied to Indonesian coffee production data from January 2009 - December 2013 with the aim of obtaining a model that will be used to predict the amount of coffee production in January 2014 - December 2014. The forecasting results from the next model will be compared with the original data. Data processing is done using EViews software. Based on the results of data processing, the best model for forecasting is obtained, SARIMA (2,1,0) (1,1,1)12

Author Biographies

Hutomo Atman Maulana, Politeknik Negeri Bengkalis

Program Studi Administrasi Bisnis Internasional

Kasuma Wardany Harahap, Universitas Graha Nusantara

Program Studi Ekonomi Pembangunan

Adriyansyah Adriyansyah, Institut Teknologi Bandung

Program Studi Matematika

Rofiroh Rofiroh, Institut Teknologi Bandung

Program Studi Matematika

Fuad Zainuddin, Institut Teknologi Bandung

Program Studi Matematika

References

Aeki-Aice. 2018. Konsumsi Kopi Indonesia. http://www.aeki-aice.org/tabel_konsumsi_ kopi_indonesia_aeki.html. Diakses 22 April 2019.

BPS. 2018. Statistik Kopi Indonesia. Badan Pusat Statistik.

Criyer, J. D and Chan, K. S. 2008. Time Series Analysis with Application in R. Springer, New York.

Makridakis, S. 1995. Metode dan Aplikasi Peramalan. Erlangga.

Putra, K.S. 2003. Analisis Produksi, Konsumsi, Dan Ekspor Komoditi Kopi Indonesia. Universitas Muhamadiyah Malang.

Rusono, N., dkk. 2013. Studi Pendahuluan Rencana Pembangunan Jangka Menengah Nasional (RPJMN) Bidang Pangan Dan Pertanian 2015-2019. BAPPENAS.

Sudjana. 2002. Metode Statistika. Tarsito, Bandung.

Wei, William W. S. 1990. Time Series Analysis: Univariate and Multivariate Methods. Addison Wasley, USA.

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Published

2019-08-01

Issue

Vol. 2 No. 1 (2019)

Section

Articles

License

This content licensing is in accordance with a CC license: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/  CC-BY-NC-SA.