Teori New Keynesian dan Relevansinya pada Makro Ekonomi Indonesia
Keywords:
New Keynesian ; Kebijakan Moneter ; Inflasi ; Kekakuan Harga Dan Upah ; Dsge ; Indonesia.Abstract
Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis relevansi Teori New Keynesian dalam menjelaskan dinamika makroekonomi Indonesia, khususnya terkait peran kebijakan moneter, kekakuan harga dan upah, serta ekspektasi inflasi. Berangkat dari kritik terhadap model makro yang sepenuhnya berorientasi ke depan, studi ini menekankan pentingnya friksi pasar dan rigiditas nominal dalam memengaruhi transmisi kebijakan moneter. Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah pendekatan kuantitatif berbasis data sekunder periode 2014–2023 yang bersumber dari Bank Indonesia, Badan Pusat Statistik, dan Kementerian Keuangan. Analisis dilakukan menggunakan kerangka Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE), Vector Autoregression (VAR), serta estimasi New Keynesian Phillips Curve dan Taylor Rule. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan moneter Bank Indonesia memiliki pengaruh signifikan terhadap inflasi, meskipun transmisi kebijakan berlangsung tidak instan akibat kekakuan harga dan upah. Selain itu, ekspektasi inflasi terbukti berperan penting dalam menentukan dinamika inflasi aktual dan stabilitas makroekonomi. Temuan ini menegaskan bahwa kerangka New Keynesian relevan untuk menjelaskan dinamika makroekonomi Indonesia, serta menekankan pentingnya kredibilitas kebijakan, komunikasi moneter (forward guidance), dan koordinasi kebijakan fiskal–moneter dalam menjaga stabilitas ekonomi.
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