Application of The Generalized Linear Model With Negative Binomial Distribution on Birth Rates in West Java 2023
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.32493/sm.v8i2.55544Keywords:
Birth Rate, Negative Binomial, GLM, INLAAbstract
The uneven decline in birth rates in West Java Province requires the identification of specific determinants of birth rates at the local level. This study aims to analyze the relationship between factors affecting birth rates, including the percentage of couples of childbearing age (PUS) using family planning (KB), Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) growth rate, percentage of working women, gender empowerment index, percentage of marital status, percentage of college graduates, and percentage of first marriages between the ages of 25 and 30. Factor analysis uses the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) and Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) models with Poisson and negative binomial distributions. Both distributions are used and compared with AIC, BIC, and DIC evaluations. The evaluation results prove that the negative binomial distribution is the best model for modeling birth data. The main findings show that the percentage of women working consistently has a negative effect on both the GLM and INLA models. Another finding is that there is a negative relationship between the variables of contraceptive use in PUS and the age of marriage between 25 and 30 years in the GLM model, but there is no significant evidence in the INLA approach.
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